About
A trading firm for questions that have answers.
We were founded by researchers and traders from quantitative trading, game-theoretic AI and forecasting, who believed event markets would become one of the most important price signals in the world, and that they deserved professional liquidity.
Why the name
Libertas, Veritas, Prosperitas: liberty, truth, prosperity. We chose an old motto because the idea behind prediction markets is old. Let people put a price on what they believe, and the price will tell you something no single person knows.
The order matters to us. Free, open markets come first. Truthful prices are what those markets produce when they work. Prosperity, for venues, participants and the firm, follows from both. We do not get to skip steps.
What we believe
- Prices are public goods. A well-calibrated market on a question is more useful than any single forecaster. Liquidity is what makes it calibrated.
- Integrity is a competitive advantage. Event markets only work if participants trust them. We hold ourselves to standards stricter than any venue requires.
- Research compounds. We publish what we can, collaborate with academics and treat every resolved contract as a data point about ourselves.
- Small is a feature. We grow headcount slowly and deliberately. Every person here changes the outcome.
| Founded | 2024 |
| Structure | Proprietary trading firm. Own capital only |
| Offices | London · New York · Prague |
| Focus | Prediction markets & event contracts |
| Venues | Regulated exchanges and on-chain markets, where permitted |
| Team | Researchers, traders & engineers; ~70% hold a PhD or equivalent |
We trade only where it is lawful for us to do so, and we comply with the rules of every venue we access.
Integrity
Standards we hold ourselves to.
Information barriers
No trading on non-public information, and no trading by staff in categories where they hold privileged access. Personal trading in event contracts is prohibited.
No manipulation, ever
We do not trade to move a price for its own sake, to influence perception of an outcome, or to affect resolution.
Venue rules first
We follow the rulebook of every venue we access and cooperate fully with venue surveillance and market-integrity teams.
Category exclusions
We decline contracts where outcomes can be cheaply influenced by a participant, or where resolution is unverifiable.