Research
Notes on pricing the future.
Practitioner research on the mathematics, microstructure and economics of prediction markets. Written by the people who trade them.
Market making in prediction markets: a practitioner's guide
How a professional liquidity provider quotes event contracts: spreads, inventory, jump risk, fees and the economics that make it work.
N°04How to price event contracts: probabilities, fees and time
A price of 63¢ does not quite mean 63%. Here is how to turn an event-contract price into a probability, and a probability into a price.
N°03Kalshi vs Polymarket: market structure for professional traders
The two largest prediction market venues ask similar questions in very different ways. For a liquidity provider, the differences matter more than the similarities.
N°02Forecast calibration: Brier score, log loss and why markets keep winning
If every forecast ends in a 0 or a 1, you can grade every forecaster honestly. Here is how we do it, and what it says about markets.
N°01Cross-venue prediction market arbitrage: what is real and what is not
The same question at 61¢ on one venue and 66¢ on another looks like free money. It rarely is. A framework for telling the difference.
Reference
Sixty-odd terms, from basis to Brier score, defined the way a trading desk uses them.
Collaborate
We work with academic groups on forecasting, mechanism design and market microstructure, and share selected data for research.