220 contracts, listing to resolution.Each line is a fair-value martingale p = Φ(Z/√(T−t)), the model behind our quoting research; depth is the starting belief. Every one ends at 0 or 1.
We trade the questions the world has not yet answered.
Libertas Veritas Prosperitas is a proprietary trading firm in prediction markets. We quote event contracts on economics, elections, weather and sport, at every hour, and every one of them is graded by what actually happens.
Every contract ends at zero or one. There is nowhere to hide a bad model, and nothing to argue about afterwards.
What we do
Market making
Continuous two-sided quotes in event contracts, skewed against inventory and repriced the moment information arrives.
Systematic forecasting
Fair values for macro releases, elections, weather and sport, scored against every resolved contract.
Relative value
The same question often trades in several places under different rules. We price the differences.
Venue partnerships
Launch liquidity and contract-design review for exchanges, so markets open with depth.
Research
Avellaneda–Stoikov on a binary contract: inventory-aware quoting, simulated
Market making · 29 Oct 2026Glosten–Milgrom for event contracts: the spread an informed trader forces
Microstructure · 28 Oct 2026Prediction market fees: break-even edge, rounding and maker vs taker
Pricing · 27 Oct 2026The Kelly criterion for prediction markets, with estimation error
Position sizing · 26 Oct 2026The favourite–longshot bias in event contracts
Pricing · 25 Oct 2026
All 15 notes · Learn · RSS
Libertas · Veritas · Prosperitas
Liberty, truth, prosperity, in that order.
Careers
Small teams, hard questions, answers that settle at zero or one. We hire researchers, engineers and forecasters who like being proven right or wrong by the world.
This month's puzzle: a contract pays $1 if a fair coin shows at least 60 heads in 100 flips. After 50 flips you have seen 34. What is it worth, and how far should it move on the next flip?
Questions
What does Libertas Veritas Prosperitas do?
We are a proprietary quantitative trading firm focused on prediction markets and event contracts. We provide two-sided liquidity, build fair-value models for real-world outcomes, and publish research on how these markets price information.
Is Libertas Veritas Prosperitas a prediction market maker?
Yes. Market making is our core activity: we quote continuous bids and offers across thousands of event contracts on regulated exchanges and on-chain venues, where we are permitted to do so. Venues can reach us through the venue programme.
Do you manage money for clients or accept outside investors?
No. We trade only our own capital. We do not offer investment products, take deposits or provide investment advice.
How do prediction market makers make money?
By earning the bid-ask spread on many small, weakly correlated trades while keeping inventory risk low. See market making in prediction markets and our simulation of inventory-aware quoting.
Are you hiring?
Continuously, for quantitative researchers, trading engineers and forecasting specialists. See open roles.