Learn prediction markets
Everything we publish, arranged by topic. Foundations first, then the research behind how event contracts are priced, quoted, designed and evaluated.
Market making & microstructure
How event contracts are quoted, who you trade against, and what inventory does to you on a bounded asset.
Pricing, fees & position sizing
From a quote to a probability, from a probability to a stake, with fees and carry included.
- How to price event contracts: probabilities, fees and time · start here
- Prediction market fees: break-even edge, rounding and maker vs taker
- The Kelly criterion for prediction markets, with estimation error
- The favourite–longshot bias in event contracts
- Event contract calculator: implied probability, fees, EV and Kelly
- Implied probability
- Kelly criterion
- Favourite–longshot bias
Market design & automated market makers
Scoring-rule market makers, constant-product pools and order books, and what each costs to run.
Forecast evaluation
Scoring rules, calibration and the statistics of telling a good forecaster from a lucky one.
Arbitrage & relative value
Dutch books, ladders and cross-venue gaps, and the costs that make most of them disappear.
Foundations
What prediction markets are, how to read their prices, and where they sit legally.
Careers
Problems of the kind we work on every day.